According to a recent article in the Financial Times, the productivity revolution from Generative AI that many are predicting may take a while to arrive.
Economists believe that the combination of a boom in generative artificial intelligence and pandemic-induced workplace changes could lead to a new era of faster productivity growth across the developed world, although this could take a decade or more. However, The Conference Board, a global business research organization, predicts minimal growth in productivity in the short term due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties and rising capital costs.
Despite the sluggish productivity growth currently, Chad Syverson, a professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business, anticipates positive results from investment in AI and changes in work habits. However, he notes that it takes time for new technologies and workplace practices to translate into productivity gains. John Haltiwanger, professor at the University of Maryland, agrees, adding that advancements in AI, particularly in large language models, would eventually boost the economy. John Van Reenen, a professor at the London School of Economics, also suggests that AI could eliminate inefficient practices in the workplace.
A paper from the Brookings Institution suggests that generative AI could significantly improve productivity, citing that it could double the work speed of coders, halve the time needed for specific writing tasks, and make call centers 14% more productive. Investment banks are encouraging clients to invest in generative AI, with researchers at Morgan Stanley predicting a productivity rebound in the US partly due to automation driven by generative AI.
Despite these optimistic views, others urge caution. Nick Bloom, a professor at Stanford University, emphasizes that significant technological advances often take decades to yield meaningful productivity gains. Additionally, The Conference Board warns against over-optimism regarding technological breakthroughs.